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Cash Costs More

TL;DR — Key Takeaways

  • Most cash offers inside point-of-sale dashboards are merchant cash advances, not loans. A $50,000 advance at a 1.3 factor rate repays $65,000, with no discount for paying early.
  • Carrier, Daikin, Rheem, Lennox, Bosch, AAON and Trane Technologies asked a court to dismiss class-action suits alleging coordinated price hikes since January 2020. No judge has ruled.
  • Prices rose 3.7% in a year while wages rose 3%, and quick-service traffic dropped 2.6% in Q3. Owners are raising prices and customers are pulling back.
Juan Hernandez — Co-founder, VibeWaggler · Adjunct Professor of the Practice, Wake Forest University

A $50,000 offer pops up on your POS screen, no credit check, cash by tomorrow. The price hides in one number.

The bottom line

Prices rose 3.7% in a year. Wholesale prices jumped 1.3% in a single month. Cash got pricier and customers are pulling back. Your equipment supplier is in court.

01 · Restaurants

Your POS wants to lend you money

Many point-of-sale companies now offer cash from the dashboard. Funding can land within hours, often with no personal credit check. On October 14, Nation's Restaurant News ran a warning: most of these offers are merchant cash advances, not loans.

An advance has a factor rate, typically 1.15 to 1.50, instead of an interest rate. Borrow $50,000 at 1.3 and you repay $65,000. Paying early earns no discount. A 15% holdback takes $150 from a $1,000 slow day, and restaurant margins run 5% to 10%. Repaid over six months, that $15,000 fee works out to close to 100% a year by my math. The author works at a debt settlement firm, so weigh the slant.

So what

Ask for the factor rate and total payback before you click. Then model a month where sales fall 15%. If payroll and rent don't clear, skip it.

02 · Service businesses

HVAC makers say they never fixed prices

On October 9, Carrier, Daikin, Rheem, Lennox, Bosch, AAON and Trane Technologies asked a court to dismiss class-action suits. Plaintiffs say the makers coordinated price hikes starting in January 2020 and hold over 90% of the U.S. market. The makers say supply chains, refrigerant rules and metal tariffs drove prices.

Lennox announced 10 increases totaling 87%. Bosch announced six totaling 39%. Those are announced figures, not verified prices paid. No judge has ruled.

So what

Save every equipment invoice and price letter since 2020. Ask a lawyer whether your purchases could put you in the case.

03 · Both

Prices are up. Customers aren't following.

Wages rose 3% this year, so buying power fell 0.7%. Menu prices rose 3.5%. In Q3, quick-service sales grew 0.6% while traffic dropped 2.6%. Wholesale prices hit their biggest monthly jump in four years.

NFIB's optimism index sat at 97.9 in September, and 20% of owners named inflation their top problem. A net 31% raised prices and a net 31% plan to again. The Fed hiked rates last month, its first hike in three years, and December looks likely for another.

So what

Compare your ten best sellers, or your three most-booked services, to the 3.5% average. Raise in small steps. Then track customer counts, not just revenue, for two weeks.

Your turn

Your POS offers $50,000 by tomorrow, no credit check, and it costs you $15,000. Smart bridge or a trap?

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Sources

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