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Your Costs Are Moving

TL;DR — Key Takeaways

  • Toast says beta restaurants using its AI scheduling agent averaged 41% fewer overtime hours per employee, at $60 a month plus $9 per employee. The figure is Toast's own, so run your own overtime math before a trial.
  • Regular gas averaged $4.35 a gallon on October 5, up $1.23 from a year ago, and 11 HVAC manufacturers have October price changes. One van burning 15 gallons a day now costs about $4,600 more per year to fuel.
  • New York froze its minimum wage at $17 downstate and $16 upstate through 2027 because statewide jobs fell, though the governor wants a raise starting March 1.
Juan Hernandez — Co-founder, VibeWaggler · Adjunct Professor of the Practice, Wake Forest University

Three costs moved this week. Only one can go down, and the proof comes from the company selling the fix.

The bottom line

Fuel and parts keep climbing for the trades. A software company says it can cut restaurant overtime by 41%. And New York froze its minimum wage because jobs fell. Your costs moved this week. You didn't get a vote.

01 · Restaurants

Toast says its AI scheduler cuts overtime 41%

On October 7, Toast launched a set of AI agents. The scheduling agent builds a staff schedule in seconds, using availability, expected sales, and overtime risk. Toast says beta restaurants averaged 41% fewer overtime hours per employee. It costs $60 a month plus $9 per employee.

That number comes from Toast, not an outside audit. So run your own math. A 25-person bistro pays $285 a month. At 100 overtime hours a month and $30 an hour, a 41% cut saves $1,230. At 10 hours, the tool loses money.

So what

Pull your overtime hours for the last three months and multiply by your overtime rate. That number tells you if a trial is worth your time.

02 · Service businesses

Your vans and your parts both got pricier

Regular gas averaged $4.35 a gallon on October 5, up $1.23 from a year ago, the EIA reports. Diesel sits at $6.20, up $2.49. Both eased a bit from the week before. Neither is close to last year.

Suppliers aren't waiting. ACHR News lists 11 HVAC manufacturers with October price changes. Aeris Metals linesets rise 12.9% on average. Panasonic follows October 19 with up to 4%. One van burning 15 gallons a day over 250 days uses 3,750 gallons. That's about $4,600 more per van per year.

So what

Re-price any quote older than 30 days. Add a fuel line to your invoices. Ask suppliers for their price letters before you bid.

03 · Both

New York froze its minimum wage because jobs fell

On October 1, New York announced its minimum wage stays at $17 in NYC, Long Island, and Westchester, and $16 upstate, through 2027. State law pauses the inflation raise when jobs shrink. Statewide jobs fell from over 10 million in January to 9.96 million in July.

But the number isn't settled. Governor Hochul wants a change that would lift wages March 1 to $17.60 downstate and $16.55 upstate. The Legislature doesn't return until January.

So what

Budget two payroll scenarios, January and March. Then check if your own state has a pause rule like this one.

Your turn

Software writes your team's schedule and overtime drops. Do you tell your staff, or keep it quiet?

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Sources

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